Full Overview

Global trade is undergoing a fundamental transformation, and is an increasingly pivotal lever in today’s geopolitically polarised world. Rising tensions, particularly that between the US and China, have sparked debate over the future efficacy of an EU-US trading relationship. A combined impact of changing political paradigms and a backdrop of climate turmoil, has led to increased protectionism across supply chains. Global trade’s future is increasingly intertwined with broader economic and political considerations beyond existing multilateral frameworks - an EU-US relationship can no longer be viewed as a proxy for this future. 

International trade has shown surprising resilience despite recent stresses, with cross-border data flows and services largely performing well. This can partly be attributed to middle-income countries that serve as a bridge between trade blocs, adopting a pragmatic approach in the midst of a rifting east and west. Beyond these ‘connector countries,’ the developed democratic economies of Asia - Japan, South Korea, and Taiwan - play an increasingly essential role. Their unique position as advanced tech and manufacturing hubs in the Indo-Pacific offers an opportunity for trade resilience and a buffer against rising geopolitical tensions. Their steady economic footing and alignment with democratic values add a revitalised dimension of hope to the global trading system. 

Developing a broader network of global trading democracies, particularly in the context of the EU and US, may be more crucial now than ever before. But what strategies can be deployed to better engage a wider scope of increasingly important nations? Amidst political uncertainty, industrial shifts and technological upheaval, how feasible is developing and sustaining a robust international trading system? 

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